The markets opened on a bullish note. However this seemed to be due to the single volume of 91 on the buy side. Before the opening there was little volume on the buy side of the ladder other than 91. With a lot of volume on the sell side before and after the opening, the market took a bearish note. Soon it started coming down in a slow manner(The speed being similar to the one over the past few days),
At 1830 it did find some support, however it was momentary. It is imp to note that the bullish feel that i had in my mind due to the fact that i had just read the news over the bloomberg terminal just seconds before the opening, prevented me from shorting the market on the basis of the volume. This baised caused me to go long multiple times against the trend and hence loose ticks.
The market came down to 1821 levels. It seemed that this could be the days bottom and again i went long this time with 6 lots. However the market came down further with some resistance. It is imp to note here that the market had traded in the range of 20 ticks in the first hour today, which had not been the case in the past few days.
The market finally found some support around 1815-1818 levels due to good volume available on the buy side at and below 1811 level. This scenario continued for major part of the day.
However around 15.30 GMT this level was also attacked and the market yeilded. once 1811 fell a lot of volume in the range of hundeads at various price points were hit. It important to note that the volume were like 200, 300 , 400 etc. Thus the bear force was significant and this could have been selling from the farmers or hedgefunds.
The front month contract ie jan fell to 1797 breaking the crucial 1800 levels. For sometime a feeling lingered in the minds of most of traders that levels of around 1788 indicated by the daily bollinger band may be visited, this however didn't happen as 1800 levels proved to be a good support.
We did get long around 1802 levels with the hope that market may rebound in the last few minutes of the trade.To our disappointment this didnot occur untill the last minute when a volume of 200 came to the buy side. It however was hit and part of it got vanished and thus the levels of 1808 which had 73 on it couldn't be broken.
This also showed that at at number of times the thumb rule don't work and expecially when there are very strong players on either side of the market.
P.S :- All the levels referred to are the Jan 08 LIFFE ones.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Saturday, November 24, 2007
23th Nov -- Friday -- The day after thanksgiving Day
The Market started off with a mildly bullish note, continuing over the trend build over the previous three days. For a lot of time it seem that a range of around 10 ticks from 1826 to 1836 had been formed. A good amount of ticks were made trading between these two ranges. Presence of icebergs between these two levels further reinforced this view, in addition to the market behavior over the fact that market behaved in a similar manner over the past three days.
However around the beginning of the latter half of the market upper limit was broken. A lot of us were caught with shorts around 1836 levels. A lot of Volumes were hit at the levels above 1836. The rising market again struck an iceberg at 1843. This iceberg actually was an implied from the March contract. Around 250 trades took place at that level, which gave the bears enough confidence to short at the levels just below 18423. The market thus turned a bit bearish.Also the lack of hitting at these levels and the removal of volumes from the buy side of the ladder turned the sentiment into a micro trend.
The market now started getting lower, but strong buying support around 1830 prevented extreme pullback.The market again got rangebound between 1329 n 1835 levels. The 1835 levels were supported by a large volume 180 at 1836, which was evenntually hit by a single player. However the market didn't move up due to the lack of other players acting in a similar manner.
The market remain subdued there after and didn't touch those levels. The highest it came was to 1833.
During the last hour it did hit the bottom of the day and even got a couple of ticks down. But again as had been experienced in the lst few days the market didn't get to any extremes and finally closed a couple of points higher than the days low at around 1825.
It seems that news from vietnam about status of rains and cyclone will play a significant role in guiding the markets when they reopen on monday. It must be noted that market have been bearish over the week (around 60 tick fall) and may continue to do so in the absence of any bullish news. Having said that, it needs to be reiterated that one should not neglect the fact that the it would be the last week for Nov contract and it could spell volatily for jan contract as well.
However around the beginning of the latter half of the market upper limit was broken. A lot of us were caught with shorts around 1836 levels. A lot of Volumes were hit at the levels above 1836. The rising market again struck an iceberg at 1843. This iceberg actually was an implied from the March contract. Around 250 trades took place at that level, which gave the bears enough confidence to short at the levels just below 18423. The market thus turned a bit bearish.Also the lack of hitting at these levels and the removal of volumes from the buy side of the ladder turned the sentiment into a micro trend.
The market now started getting lower, but strong buying support around 1830 prevented extreme pullback.The market again got rangebound between 1329 n 1835 levels. The 1835 levels were supported by a large volume 180 at 1836, which was evenntually hit by a single player. However the market didn't move up due to the lack of other players acting in a similar manner.
The market remain subdued there after and didn't touch those levels. The highest it came was to 1833.
During the last hour it did hit the bottom of the day and even got a couple of ticks down. But again as had been experienced in the lst few days the market didn't get to any extremes and finally closed a couple of points higher than the days low at around 1825.
It seems that news from vietnam about status of rains and cyclone will play a significant role in guiding the markets when they reopen on monday. It must be noted that market have been bearish over the week (around 60 tick fall) and may continue to do so in the absence of any bullish news. Having said that, it needs to be reiterated that one should not neglect the fact that the it would be the last week for Nov contract and it could spell volatily for jan contract as well.
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